Bohemians 1905 4-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Ďolíček plays host to Bohemians 1905 versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 30 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FK Jablonec have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Bohemians 1905, 1.50 for FK Jablonec — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FK Jablonec in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Bohemians 1905 1W, FK Jablonec 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2022, ended 3–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 59% versus FK Jablonec 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 58% | FK Jablonec 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 2.51 xG and FK Jablonec 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.089 / defence 1.001 | FK Jablonec attack 1.136 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.222. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.369 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Bohemians 1905 games / 59 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 61% | Draw 19% | FK Jablonec 19%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.64 | Draw 5.26 | FK Jablonec 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians 1905 (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.51 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 60% | FK Jablonec 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 61% | Draw 19% | FK Jablonec 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 69% | xG Bohemians 1905 2.51 / FK Jablonec 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.089 / def 1.001 | FK Jablonec attack 1.136 / def 1.369 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.39
FK Jablonec xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Bohemians 1905 4 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 61% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
Record (2 meetings): Bohemians 1905 1W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 1.09x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 2.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.14x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
61%
1.63
19%
5.21
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.90
1.39
FK Jablonec xG
1.63
61%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
8%
12.34
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
2%
63.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.39 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 64 games, going 23W 15D 26L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.08 PPG from 64 outings (15W 24D 25L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.08 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 12W 8D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.87 points per game from 31 outings (6W 9D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.12 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
FK Jablonec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 23W 15D 26L in their last 64 games (1.31 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 15W 24D 25L in their last 64 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or FK Jablonec away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.42 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 58%, FK Jablonec 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Bohemians 1905) and 58% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play FK Jablonec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Bohemians 1905's games and 55% of FK Jablonec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 58% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bohemians 1905 run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat FK Jablonec 4-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 2.51 xG and FK Jablonec 1.39 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.09 / defence 1.00 against FK Jablonec attack 1.14 / defence 1.37, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 61% | Draw 19% | FK Jablonec 19%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 58%, FK Jablonec 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.31 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.