Baník Ostrava 6-0 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Slovácko encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna plays host to Baník Ostrava versus Slovácko in Czech Liga, Championship Round - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Baník Ostrava have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Baník Ostrava's home record at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this season.
Slovácko (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovácko have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Baník Ostrava's favour (1.20 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Slovácko in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Baník Ostrava 2W, Slovácko 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Slovácko winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Baník Ostrava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Slovácko goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 59% versus Slovácko 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 58% | Slovácko 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.75 xG and Slovácko 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.063 / defence 1.098 | Slovácko attack 0.978 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: 60 Baník Ostrava games / 60 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 45% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 29%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Slovácko 3.45. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 60% | Slovácko 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 45% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.75 / Slovácko 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.063 / def 1.098 | Slovácko attack 0.978 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Slovácko xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Slovácko kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Slovácko kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Slovácko?
Baník Ostrava 6 - 0 Slovácko.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Slovácko part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Slovácko is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 45% chance of winning, Slovácko a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Slovácko?
Record (4 meetings): Baník Ostrava 2W | Draws 1 | Slovácko 1W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Slovácko in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Slovácko (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Slovácko's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Slovácko's attack (0.98x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
45%
2.21
25%
3.94
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
3.14
1.39
Slovácko xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
5%
19.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.5 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.39 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 24W 16D 29L from 69 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Slovácko, meanwhile, have gone 25W 19D 25L across 69 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Baník Ostrava against 1.36 for Slovácko. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Baník Ostrava have managed 13W 6D 15L from 34 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovácko's away record stands at 11W 9D 14L across 34 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.23 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 24W 16D 29L in their last 69 games (1.28 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 25W 19D 25L in their last 69 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Slovácko away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.32 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Slovácko in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baník Ostrava won 6-0 on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovácko — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Baník Ostrava
2
Draws
3
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 5, Slovácko have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Slovácko 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Slovácko?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 56%, Slovácko 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Baník Ostrava) and 50% (Slovácko). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 29% of games; Slovácko in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 50% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 50% of Slovácko's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Slovácko tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Slovácko 6-0 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Championship Round - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.75 xG and Slovácko 1.39 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 4.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slovácko landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.06 / defence 1.10 against Slovácko attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 45% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 29%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 58%, Slovácko 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovácko's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.28 PPG, Slovácko 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.