Baník Ostrava 1-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Sigma Olomouc travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baník Ostrava 76% and Sigma Olomouc 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 76% | Sigma Olomouc 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.86 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.326 / defence 1.500 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.820 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.273. Baník Ostrava carry an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 21 Baník Ostrava games / 21 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 45% | Draw 22% | Sigma Olomouc 33%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | Sigma Olomouc 3.03. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 90% | Sigma Olomouc 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 45% | Draw 22% | Sigma Olomouc 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.86 / Sigma Olomouc 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.326 / def 1.500 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.820 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Sigma Olomouc xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 45% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 1.33x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
45%
2.22
22%
4.49
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
3.43
1.56
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
16%
6.45
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
5%
19.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.56 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 21 games, going 11W 6D 4L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.19 PPG from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 5W 3D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baník Ostrava are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.57 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 11W 6D 4L in their last 21 games (1.86 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.80 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Sigma Olomouc won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Baník Ostrava
2
Draws
3
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 5, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Baník Ostrava 2-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Baník Ostrava at 90%, Sigma Olomouc at 40%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for Baník Ostrava and 40% for Sigma Olomouc. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 90% of Baník Ostrava's games and 40% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 40% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Sigma Olomouc 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.86 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.56 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.33 / defence 1.50 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.82 / defence 1.14, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 45% | Draw 22% | Sigma Olomouc 33%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 76%, Sigma Olomouc 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.