Baník Ostrava 2-4 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Relegation Round - 5 sees Pardubice travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 May 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baník Ostrava stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Baník Ostrava have posted 5W 1D 4L at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pardubice's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Baník Ostrava, 0 for Pardubice and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Pardubice in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baník Ostrava 67% and Pardubice 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 64% | Pardubice 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.44 xG and Pardubice 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.764 / defence 1.078 | Pardubice attack 0.821 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Baník Ostrava's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Baník Ostrava games / 60 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 43% | Draw 29% | Pardubice 28%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Pardubice 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Baník Ostrava 50% | Pardubice 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 43% | Draw 29% | Pardubice 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.44 / Pardubice 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.764 / def 1.078 | Pardubice attack 0.821 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Pardubice xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Baník Ostrava 2 - 4 Pardubice.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 43% chance of winning, Pardubice a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
Record (3 meetings): Baník Ostrava 2W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 0W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Pardubice (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.76x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
43%
2.32
29%
3.41
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.54
1.11
Pardubice xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.11 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 69 games, going 26W 19D 24L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 1.03 PPG from 69 outings (19W 14D 36L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.41 PPG, Pardubice on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 16W 7D 11L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.88 points per game from 34 outings (9W 3D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.10 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
Pardubice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 26W 19D 24L in their last 69 games (1.41 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 19W 14D 36L in their last 69 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Pardubice away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.62 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Baník Ostrava
2
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 6, Pardubice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Baník Ostrava 1-4 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 68%, Pardubice 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Baník Ostrava and 65% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pardubice in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Baník Ostrava's games and 59% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 65% of Pardubice's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Pardubice tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Baník Ostrava 2-4 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Relegation Round - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.44 xG and Pardubice 1.11 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Pardubice outscored their 1.11 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.76 / defence 1.08 against Pardubice attack 0.82 / defence 1.13, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 43% | Draw 29% | Pardubice 28%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 64%, Pardubice 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.41 PPG, Pardubice 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.