Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 24 as Baník Ostrava welcome Bohemians 1905 to Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich this season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Baník Ostrava, 3 for Bohemians 1905 and 3 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 32% versus Bohemians 1905 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 40% | Bohemians 1905 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.23 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.808 / defence 0.950 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.946 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.288. Data: 35 Baník Ostrava games / 36 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 37% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 34%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 1905 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 10% | Bohemians 1905 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 37% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.23 / Bohemians 1905 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.808 / def 0.950 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.946 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Bohemians 1905 xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 37% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
Record (10 meetings): Baník Ostrava 4W | Draws 3 | Bohemians 1905 3W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
37%
2.68
29%
3.46
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.38
1.16
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.16 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Baník Ostrava have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 11W 7D 20L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 12W 9D 17L from 38 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.05 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Baník Ostrava have posted 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (7W 3D 9L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 7W 4D 8L from 19 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.92 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 11W 7D 20L in their last 38 games (1.05 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.26 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians 1905 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Baník Ostrava
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Baník Ostrava 21% BTTS, Bohemians 1905 47%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Baník Ostrava) and 47% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 53% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 47% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 47% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.