Tianjin Teda 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua meet at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Monday 21 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Tianjin Teda 0W, Shanghai Shenhua 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 53% versus Shanghai Shenhua 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 47% | Shanghai Shenhua 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.48 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.133 / defence 0.874 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.871 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.382. Data: 39 Tianjin Teda games / 39 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 46% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 26%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Shanghai Shenhua 3.85. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 50% | Shanghai Shenhua 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 21 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 46% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.48 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 1.133 / def 0.874 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.871 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Shanghai Shenhua xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 21 November 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Tianjin Teda 2 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 46% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (1 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 1 | Shanghai Shenhua 0W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (1.13) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (0.87x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.63
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.53
1.05
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
6%
16.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.05 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 15W 11D 21L from 47 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 10L across 47 games — 1.68 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shanghai Shenhua by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 7W 4D 11L from 22 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record stands at 7W 8D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.38 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 15W 11D 21L in their last 47 games (1.19 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 21W 16D 10L in their last 47 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.14 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 3-0 on 25 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
4
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 0-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 64%, Shanghai Shenhua 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Tianjin Teda) and 36% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Shanghai Shenhua?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Tianjin Teda's games and 54% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 36% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Shanghai Shenhua 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Shanghai Shenhua 2-1 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.48 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.05 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 1.13 / defence 0.87 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.87 / defence 0.89, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 46% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 26%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 47%, Shanghai Shenhua 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Tianjin Teda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.