Tianjin Teda 1-1 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon make the trip to Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Tianjin Teda in Super League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Tianjin Teda (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Olympic Sports Center Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympic Sports Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon's overall Super League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tianjin Teda lead 4W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 0–2 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 57% versus Qingdao Jonoon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 58% | Qingdao Jonoon 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.55 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.898 / defence 1.112 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.918 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.865 / away 1.120. Data: 34 Tianjin Teda games / 34 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 47% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 28%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.57. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Tianjin Teda 30% | Qingdao Jonoon 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 47% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.55 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.898 / def 1.112 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.918 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.865 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Qingdao Jonoon xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 47% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (6 meetings): Tianjin Teda 4W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 2W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.90) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Qingdao Jonoon's attack (0.92x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
47%
2.14
25%
3.97
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.70
1.14
Qingdao Jonoon xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
6%
16.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.14 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 24W 14D 22L from 60 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 32L across 60 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tianjin Teda by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 15W 9D 6L from 30 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 3W 6D 21L across 30 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.05 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 13W 15D 32L in their last 60 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.80 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 1-4 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Tianjin Teda
1
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 5, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 0-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 43%, Qingdao Jonoon 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Tianjin Teda) and 43% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 37% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 43% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.55 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.14 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.92 / defence 0.93, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 47% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 28%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 58%, Qingdao Jonoon 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.