Tianjin Teda 1-1 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 48%, yet in-form Chengdu Better City provide a compelling counter-argument — this Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Chengdu Better City at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town in Super League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 16 June 2022 at 09:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 3W 2D 5L at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chengdu Better City — All Games: 1W 1D 0L from 2 Super League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Chengdu Better City have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Chengdu Better City's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Tianjin Teda's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.29 xG and Chengdu Better City 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.993 / defence 1.121 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.598 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.213. Data: 17 Tianjin Teda games / 3 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 48% | Draw 29% | Chengdu Better City 24%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Chengdu Better City 4.17. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Chengdu Better City (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Wuhua Hengpi Football Town • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jun 2022, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 48% | Draw 29% | Chengdu Better City 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.29 / Chengdu Better City 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.993 / def 1.121 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.598 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Chengdu Better City xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 09:30 on Thursday 16 June 2022 at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 1 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 48% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.99x the league average against Chengdu Better City's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.47
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.10
0.81
Chengdu Better City xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
7%
15.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.81 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tianjin Teda come into this having played 2 games, going 2W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W. It's still early in the season for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chengdu Better City sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Tianjin Teda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Chengdu Better City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Chengdu Better City in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Early Season
Chengdu Better City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Tianjin Teda or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
4
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City?
From 9 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Chengdu Better City have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 50% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 0% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town, Regular Season - 4, as Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.29 xG and Chengdu Better City 0.81 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.99 / defence 1.12 against Chengdu Better City attack 0.60 / defence 1.06, drawn from 17/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 48% | Draw 29% | Chengdu Better City 24%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 0%, Chengdu Better City 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tianjin Teda shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.