Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-2 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda meet at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 21 June 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s favour (1.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W, Tianjin Teda 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Shijiazhuang Y. J. half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% versus Tianjin Teda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46% | Tianjin Teda 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.97 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.810 / defence 0.909 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.812 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.105. Data: 18 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 18 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% | Draw 36% | Tianjin Teda 28%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Tianjin Teda 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | Tianjin Teda 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Jun 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% | Draw 36% | Tianjin Teda 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.97 / Tianjin Teda 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.810 / def 0.909 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.812 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Tianjin Teda xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 10:30 on Tuesday 21 June 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 2 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 36% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda?
Record (2 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 1W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack rating (0.81) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.81x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
36%
2.75
36%
2.80
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
1.78
0.82
Tianjin Teda xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 13.7 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0.82 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 6W 6D 10L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 5W 6D 11L from 22 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 0.95 for Tianjin Teda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 4D 5L from 11 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shijiazhuang Y. J. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 0.82 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 5W 6D 11L in their last 22 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.64 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Tianjin Teda have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 3-0 on 12 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
5
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda?
From 8 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Tianjin Teda have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Tianjin Teda 3-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36%, Tianjin Teda 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 27% for Tianjin Teda.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 36%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 36% of games; Tianjin Teda in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 36% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 27% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 36% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-2 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.97 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.82 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Tianjin Teda outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.81 / defence 0.90, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% | Draw 36% | Tianjin Teda 28%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%, Tianjin Teda 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.09 PPG, Tianjin Teda 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.