Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Hangzhou Greentown travel to Cangzhou Stadium to take on Shijiazhuang Y. J.. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 July 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 2W 3D 5L at Cangzhou Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Hangzhou Greentown — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hangzhou Greentown are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (46 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (46 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54% versus Hangzhou Greentown 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46% | Hangzhou Greentown 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.15 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.807 / defence 1.026 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.162 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.295. Data: 47 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 46 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 27% | Draw 28% | Hangzhou Greentown 45%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.22. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 27% | Draw 28% | Hangzhou Greentown 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.15 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.807 / def 1.026 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.162 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Hangzhou Greentown xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 2 July 2023 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 27% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (2 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W | Draws 2 | Hangzhou Greentown 0W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
27%
3.70
28%
3.58
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.69
1.54
Hangzhou Greentown xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
6%
17.32
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.54 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 13W 15D 18L from 46 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 22W 14D 10L across 46 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hangzhou Greentown by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 4W 10D 10L from 24 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 9W 10D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.76 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 13W 15D 18L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 22W 14D 10L in their last 46 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Hangzhou Greentown's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 0.92 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Hangzhou Greentown won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
3
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Hangzhou Greentown 2-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%, Hangzhou Greentown 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 54% (Hangzhou Greentown).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s games and 71% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 54% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shijiazhuang Y. J. defy the odds to beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.15 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.54 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.81 / defence 1.03 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.16 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 27% | Draw 28% | Hangzhou Greentown 45%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Shijiazhuang Y. J. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%, Hangzhou Greentown 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (46 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (46 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.