Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wuhua Hengpi Football Town plays host to Shenzhen Ruby FC versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. in Super League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 17 June 2022 at 09:30 UTC.
Current Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC's overall Super League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shenzhen Ruby FC — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 59% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 64% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.32 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.046 / defence 1.012 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.125 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.197. Data: 17 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 17 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 34% | Draw 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Wuhua Hengpi Football Town • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jun 2022, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 34% | Draw 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.32 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.046 / def 1.012 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.125 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 09:30 on Friday 17 June 2022 at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1 - 0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 34% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (2 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W | Draws 0 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack at 1.05x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (1.12x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
34%
2.94
30%
3.35
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.68
1.36
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.36 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC come into this having played 22 games, going 9W 5D 8L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 1.09 PPG from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Shenzhen Ruby FC against 1.09 for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home form reads 4W 3D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have taken 0.55 points per game from 11 outings (1W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenzhen Ruby FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.14 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 games (1.45 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.36 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
3
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 3, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shenzhen Ruby FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 46%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 82% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 73% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's games and 82% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 73% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shenzhen Ruby FC defy the odds to beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.32 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.36 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shijiazhuang Y. J. landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.01 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.12 / defence 0.99, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 34% | Draw 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Shenzhen Ruby FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.45 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shenzhen Ruby FC win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.