Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shandong Luneng (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shenzhen Ruby FC face Shandong Luneng.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Shandong Luneng travel to Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 25 August 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Shenzhen Ruby FC — All Games: 0W 1D 9L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Shenzhen Ruby FC are significantly better at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shandong Luneng stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shandong Luneng — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shenzhen Ruby FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Shandong Luneng in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Shandong Luneng have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Shenzhen Ruby FC's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2023, ended 0–3 with Shandong Luneng winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shandong Luneng have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Shenzhen Ruby FC trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Shandong Luneng trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 48% versus Shandong Luneng 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 64% | Shandong Luneng 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.03 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.771 / defence 1.405 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.983 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.221. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 57 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 22% | Draw 26% | Shandong Luneng 52%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Shandong Luneng 1.92. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% | Shandong Luneng 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 22% | Draw 26% | Shandong Luneng 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.03 / Shandong Luneng 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.771 / def 1.405 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.983 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Shandong Luneng xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 25 August 2023 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1 - 2 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 22% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng?
Record (5 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W | Draws 1 | Shandong Luneng 4W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shenzhen Ruby FC's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Shandong Luneng's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
22%
4.51
26%
3.81
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.72
1.69
Shandong Luneng xG
4.51
22%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
4%
24.37
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.69 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent record stands at 12W 6D 38L from 56 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 35W 11D 10L across 56 games — 2.07 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 1.32 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shenzhen Ruby FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shenzhen Ruby FC have managed 8W 2D 18L from 28 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 12W 8D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.29 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 6D 38L in their last 56 games (0.75 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 35W 11D 10L in their last 56 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 0.93 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shandong Luneng have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2022, when Shandong Luneng won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
5
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng?
From 6 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 46%, Shandong Luneng 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 54% (Shandong Luneng). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 61% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 54% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.03 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.69 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.41 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.98 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 22% | Draw 26% | Shandong Luneng 52%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%, Shandong Luneng 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.