Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Meizhou Kejia make the trip to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium to face Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Monday 13 June 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.61 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.104 / defence 0.891 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.879 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.055. Data: 16 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 2 Meizhou Kejia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 56% | Draw 26% | Meizhou Kejia 19%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Meizhou Kejia 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Shenzhen Ruby FC (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shenzhen Ruby FC are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 13 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 56% | Draw 26% | Meizhou Kejia 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.61 / Meizhou Kejia 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.104 / def 0.891 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.879 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Shenzhen Ruby FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Meizhou Kejia xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:30 on Monday 13 June 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1 - 2 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 56% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shenzhen Ruby FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Meizhou Kejia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Meizhou Kejia in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Shenzhen Ruby FC home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating (1.10) and Meizhou Kejia's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.88x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
The sample (16/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenzhen Ruby FC Win
56%
1.80
26%
3.90
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.44
0.83
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
4%
26.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 0.83 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Pre-Season
Meizhou Kejia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Meizhou Kejia won 5-1 on 16 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
3
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Meizhou Kejia?
From 4 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Meizhou Kejia have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2023, when Meizhou Kejia 5-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Meizhou Kejia?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Meizhou Kejia defy the odds to beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.61 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.83 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.89 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.88 / defence 1.12, drawn from 16/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 56% | Draw 26% | Meizhou Kejia 19%, with Shenzhen Ruby FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Meizhou Kejia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.