Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-2 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 68% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shenzhen Ruby FC face Changchun Yatai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Changchun Yatai travel to Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 December 2022 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Changchun Yatai — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Changchun Yatai away from home: 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.10 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 2 for Changchun Yatai and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2022, ended Shenzhen Ruby FC 0–1 Changchun Yatai — a Changchun Yatai win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 54% versus Changchun Yatai 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 62% | Changchun Yatai 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.98 xG and Changchun Yatai 2.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.639 / defence 1.334 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.245 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.429. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating of 0.639 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Changchun Yatai have an above-average attack rating of 1.245, which lifts their away xG to 2.37. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.334 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Changchun Yatai's projected output up. Data: built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 42 games and Changchun Yatai's last 43.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 13% | Draw 19% | Changchun Yatai 68%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 7.47 | Draw 5.31 | Changchun Yatai 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Changchun Yatai (68%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Changchun Yatai at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 home games and Changchun Yatai's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Changchun Yatai 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, matchday 30 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 • Kick-off: Saturday 10 December 2022 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 13% | Draw 19% | Changchun Yatai 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.98 / Changchun Yatai 2.37 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.639 / def 1.334 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.245 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
2.37
Changchun Yatai xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai FAQs
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Saturday 10 December 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 2 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai is a Super League fixture (matchday 30) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 13% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 68% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shenzhen Ruby FC's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 2.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 42 games and Changchun Yatai's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
13%
7.47
19%
5.31
68%
1.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
3.35
2.37
Changchun Yatai xG
7.47
13%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
1.47
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
9%
10.74
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
1%
80.27
25%
3.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 2.37 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 18W 8D 24L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Changchun Yatai's form line: 19W 17D 14L from 50 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.24 PPG, Changchun Yatai on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 1.14 PPG from their last 22 home games (8W 1D 13L).
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 8W 8D 6L from their last 22 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.44 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC (Home) vs Changchun Yatai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai Form FAQs
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 18W 8D 24L in their last 50 games (1.24 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 19W 17D 14L in their last 50 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Changchun Yatai's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.14 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 29 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Changchun Yatai have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Jun 2023, when Changchun Yatai won Changchun Yatai 4-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
5
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, Changchun Yatai have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 September 2023: Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 41%, Changchun Yatai 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 68% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 68% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 68% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 64% of Changchun Yatai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-2 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.98 xG and Changchun Yatai 2.37 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.64 / defence 1.33 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.25 / defence 1.10, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 13% | Draw 19% | Changchun Yatai 68%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 62%, Changchun Yatai 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (50 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (50 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.24 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.