SHANGHAI SIPG 0-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG host Wuhan Three Towns at Puwan Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 12 July 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Puwan Stadium, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Puwan Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 8W 1D 0L from 9 Super League fixtures this season — 2.78 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.56 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record: 3W 1D 0L from 4 road trips in Super League this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wuhan Three Towns — 0.88 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.78 vs 1.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 0, Wuhan Three Towns 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2022, ended 1–2 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Wuhan Three Towns in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 44% versus Wuhan Three Towns 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 33% | Wuhan Three Towns 89%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.12 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.833 / defence 0.892 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.348 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.150. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 23 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 9 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 30% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Three Towns 42%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SHANGHAI SIPG 30% | Wuhan Three Towns 75%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 Jul 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 30% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Three Towns 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.12 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.833 / def 0.892 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.348 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Wuhan Three Towns xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 12 July 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns?
SHANGHAI SIPG 0 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 30% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (1 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 0W | Draws 0 | Wuhan Three Towns 1W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Three Towns in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 8W-1D-0L in 9 | 2.78 PPG | GF 3.56 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 0.83x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
30%
3.35
28%
3.61
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.50
1.38
Wuhan Three Towns xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
7%
13.35
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.38 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, SHANGHAI SIPG have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 5W 1D 3L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns's form line: 8W 1D 0L from 9 games, 2.78 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wuhan Three Towns are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SHANGHAI SIPG.
Venue Form
On home soil, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 away games — 2.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 3.56 scored and 0.67 conceded. Wuhan Three Towns's attacking output running into SHANGHAI SIPG's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 games (1.78 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 8W 1D 0L in their last 9 (2.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 1.75 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.50 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
2
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 9 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 4-0 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Three Towns?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 50%, Wuhan Three Towns 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 75% (Wuhan Three Towns).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 75% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 75% of Wuhan Three Towns's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wuhan Three Towns edge out SHANGHAI SIPG 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat SHANGHAI SIPG 0-1 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.12 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.38 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SHANGHAI SIPG fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.83 / defence 0.89 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.35 / defence 0.93, drawn from 23/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 30% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Three Towns 42%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 33%, Wuhan Three Towns 89%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.78 PPG against 1.78. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.