SHANGHAI SIPG 5-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 78% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG host Tianjin Teda at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena in Super League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SHANGHAI SIPG — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 10W 0D 0L at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 4.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, SHANGHAI SIPG have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
SHANGHAI SIPG hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Tianjin Teda, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2024, ended 3–0 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
The historical record gives SHANGHAI SIPG a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 61% and Tianjin Teda 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 66% | Tianjin Teda 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 3.36 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.608 / defence 0.902 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.056 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.823 / away 1.272. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.608 — their λ of 3.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 59 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 59 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 78% | Draw 12% | Tianjin Teda 10%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.28 | Draw 8.33 | Tianjin Teda 10.00. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (78%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 4.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (3.36 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 83% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 70% | Tianjin Teda 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 78% | Draw 12% | Tianjin Teda 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 68% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 3.36 / Tianjin Teda 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.608 / def 0.902 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.056 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.823 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (78%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
3.36
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Tianjin Teda xG
68%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
SHANGHAI SIPG 5 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 78% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 10% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda?
Record (6 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 4W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 1W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SHANGHAI SIPG's attack rating (1.61) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 3.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.1%), 4-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
78%
1.28
12%
8.09
10%
10.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
4 – 1
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.36
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
4.57
1.21
Tianjin Teda xG
1.28
78%
Home win
8.09
12%
Draw
10.37
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
67%
Over 3.5
1.49
33%
Under 3.5
3.03
48%
Over 4.5
2.08
52%
Under 4.5
1.92
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
3%
28.70
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 3.36 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.21 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 4.57.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, SHANGHAI SIPG have picked up 2.34 PPG on a 43W 9D 7L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 23W 21D 15L from 59 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tianjin Teda.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 2.34 PPG from 29 outings (21W 5D 3L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 11W 6D 12L from 29 away games — 1.34 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.58 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.42 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Tianjin Teda in 63%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 43W 9D 7L in their last 59 games (2.34 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 23W 21D 15L in their last 59 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Tianjin Teda away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.34 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.34 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
3
Draws
1
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, Tianjin Teda have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SHANGHAI SIPG at 79%, Tianjin Teda at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 55% for Tianjin Teda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 69% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 55% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Tianjin Teda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Tianjin Teda 5-0 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 3.36 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.21 xG, a combined 4.57. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tianjin Teda landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.61 / defence 0.90 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.06 / defence 1.15, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 78% | Draw 12% | Tianjin Teda 10%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 78%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 67% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 66%, Tianjin Teda 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.53. That form edge translated into the three points. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.