SHANGHAI SIPG 1-0 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as SHANGHAI SIPG take on Shanghai Shenhua.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Shanghai Shenhua travel to Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium to take on SHANGHAI SIPG. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 July 2021, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 4W 4D 0L from 8 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.88 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 0L across 4 games at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 4W 3D 1L from 8 Super League matches — 1.88 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.62 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 2W 1D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.00 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.88 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 50% and Shanghai Shenhua 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 38% | Shanghai Shenhua 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.19 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.049 / defence 0.862 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.018 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.003 / away 1.174. Data: 8 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 8 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 36% | Draw 37% | Shanghai Shenhua 28%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.78 | Draw 2.70 | Shanghai Shenhua 3.57. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SHANGHAI SIPG 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 36% | Draw 37% | Shanghai Shenhua 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 49% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.19 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.049 / def 0.862 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.018 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.003 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Shanghai Shenhua xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua?
SHANGHAI SIPG 1 - 0 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 36% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 28% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 4W-4D-0L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.88 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 4W-3D-1L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.05x the league average against Shanghai Shenhua's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.81
37%
2.72
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.22
1.03
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
8%
11.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.03 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 4W 4D 0L from 8 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 1L across 8 games — 1.88 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SHANGHAI SIPG on 2.00 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — SHANGHAI SIPG are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.62 scored and 1.00 conceded. SHANGHAI SIPG's scoring rate against Shanghai Shenhua's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Shanghai Shenhua in 75%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 4W 4D 0L in their last 8 games (2.00 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 4W 3D 1L in their last 8 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.50 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.75 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jul 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
4
Draws
3
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, Shanghai Shenhua have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-0 Shanghai Shenhua.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 25%, Shanghai Shenhua 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 50% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 75% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 50% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Shanghai Shenhua 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.19 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.03 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shanghai Shenhua landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.05 / defence 0.86 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.02 / defence 1.13, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 36% | Draw 37% | Shanghai Shenhua 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual SHANGHAI SIPG win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 38%, Shanghai Shenhua 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SHANGHAI SIPG 2.00 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SHANGHAI SIPG win broke the near-deadlock. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.