Shanghai Shenhua 1-1 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Shanghai Shenhua welcome SHANGHAI SIPG to Suzhou City Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 5 May 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.04 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.093 / defence 1.133 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.421 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 0.805 / away 1.188. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.421 — the away xG of 1.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 2 Shanghai Shenhua games / 2 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 18% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 56%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 5.56 | Draw 3.85 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.79. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Suzhou City Sports Centre • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 May 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 18% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.04 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.093 / def 1.133 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.421 / def 1.182 | league avg home 0.805 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.91
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 13:00 on Wednesday 5 May 2021 at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 18% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 56% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shanghai Shenhua's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
18%
5.46
26%
3.86
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.95
1.91
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
5.46
18%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
15%
6.77
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
3%
36.98
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.91 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Pre-Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jul 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shanghai Shenhua
4
Draws
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 3, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-0 Shanghai Shenhua.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suzhou City Sports Centre, Regular Season - 3, as Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.04 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.91 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.42 / defence 1.18, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 18% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 56%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.