Shanghai Shenhua 3-1 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Shanghai Shenhua welcome SHANGHAI SIPG to Shanghai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 August 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Shanghai Stadium this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Shanghai Stadium.
SHANGHAI SIPG — All Games: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing away from home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. SHANGHAI SIPG's 3.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Shanghai Shenhua's 2.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 1 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 45% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 45% | SHANGHAI SIPG 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.51 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.459 / defence 0.722 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.477 / defence 0.581. League average goals — home 1.787 / away 1.325. Shanghai Shenhua carry an above-average attack strength of 1.459 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence strength of 0.581 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.477 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.722 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Shanghai Shenhua games / 53 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 40% | Draw 25% | SHANGHAI SIPG 35%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SHANGHAI SIPG (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Shanghai Shenhua 50% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 40% | Draw 25% | SHANGHAI SIPG 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.51 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.459 / def 0.722 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.477 / def 0.581 | league avg home 1.787 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.41
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Shanghai Shenhua 3 - 1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 40% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (5 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 1W | Draws 3 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shanghai Shenhua's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.58x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
40%
2.52
25%
3.99
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.93
1.41
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.41 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shanghai Shenhua come into this having played 53 games, going 33W 11D 9L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 2.38 PPG from 53 outings (39W 9D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shanghai Shenhua on 2.08 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG on 2.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Shanghai Shenhua's home form reads 17W 6D 3L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 2.46 points per game from 26 outings (20W 4D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.66 scored and 0.94 conceded. SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking output running into Shanghai Shenhua's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG in 60%.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 33W 11D 9L in their last 53 games (2.08 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 39W 9D 5L in their last 53 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.19 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.46 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jul 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shanghai Shenhua
4
Draws
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 3, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-0 Shanghai Shenhua.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 46%, SHANGHAI SIPG 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 62% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 38% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 62% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shanghai Shenhua cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SHANGHAI SIPG.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat SHANGHAI SIPG 3-1 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.51 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.41 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.46 / defence 0.72 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.48 / defence 0.58, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 40% | Draw 25% | SHANGHAI SIPG 35%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 45%, SHANGHAI SIPG 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 2.08 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 2.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shanghai Shenhua win broke the near-deadlock. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.