Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Changchun Yatai travel to Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium to take on Shanghai Shenhua. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 August 2021, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's home record at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium: 2W 3D 0L from 5 Super League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shanghai Shenhua 1.60 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shanghai Shenhua register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Changchun Yatai in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 1 for Changchun Yatai and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2021, ended 0–1 with Changchun Yatai winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Changchun Yatai trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 60% versus Changchun Yatai 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 40% | Changchun Yatai 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.18 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.892 / defence 1.005 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.086 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.028 / away 1.225. Changchun Yatai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Shanghai Shenhua games / 10 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 29% | Draw 34% | Changchun Yatai 37%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Changchun Yatai 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 60% | Changchun Yatai 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 Aug 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 29% | Draw 34% | Changchun Yatai 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 55% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.18 / Changchun Yatai 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.892 / def 1.005 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.086 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.028 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Changchun Yatai xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 6 August 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 2 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 29% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai?
Record (1 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 0W | Draws 0 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 0.89x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
29%
3.43
34%
2.95
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.51
1.34
Changchun Yatai xG
3.43
29%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
8%
13.06
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.34 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shanghai Shenhua come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 4D 2L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.90 PPG from 10 outings (5W 4D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shanghai Shenhua on 1.60 PPG, Changchun Yatai on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shanghai Shenhua's home form reads 2W 3D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 1.60 points per game from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.40 scored and 0.70 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Shanghai Shenhua have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Changchun Yatai in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 games (1.60 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.80 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 June 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shanghai Shenhua
3
Draws
2
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, Changchun Yatai have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 29 June 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shanghai Shenhua tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shanghai Shenhua at 60%, Changchun Yatai at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Shanghai Shenhua and 80% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Shanghai Shenhua have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 80% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Shanghai Shenhua's matches and 80% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Shanghai Shenhua 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.18 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.34 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.09 / defence 1.28, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 29% | Draw 34% | Changchun Yatai 37%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 40%, Changchun Yatai 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 1.60 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.