Shandong Luneng 2-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 69% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng host Tianjin Teda at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shandong Luneng 1.90 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Shandong Luneng have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 past contests while Tianjin Teda have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2025, ended 0–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shandong Luneng and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 60% versus Tianjin Teda 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 66% | Tianjin Teda 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.25 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.275 / defence 0.786 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.745 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.805 / away 1.434. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shandong Luneng's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Shandong Luneng games / 58 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 69% | Draw 19% | Tianjin Teda 12%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Tianjin Teda 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 70% | Tianjin Teda 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 69% | Draw 19% | Tianjin Teda 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 51% | xG Shandong Luneng 2.25 / Tianjin Teda 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.275 / def 0.786 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.745 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.805 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Tianjin Teda xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Shandong Luneng 2 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 69% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda?
Record (7 meetings): Shandong Luneng 4W | Draws 2 | Tianjin Teda 1W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 1.27x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
69%
1.45
19%
5.23
12%
8.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.09
0.84
Tianjin Teda xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.23
19%
Draw
8.30
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
11%
9.49
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
1%
78.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.84 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shandong Luneng's recent record stands at 26W 17D 15L from 58 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-W in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 20L across 58 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shandong Luneng on 1.64 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shandong Luneng have managed 17W 7D 5L from 29 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 9W 5D 15L across 29 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.41 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shandong Luneng have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 26W 17D 15L in their last 58 games (1.64 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 24W 14D 20L in their last 58 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.00 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shandong Luneng go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2022, when Shandong Luneng won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Shandong Luneng
2
Draws
1
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 7, Tianjin Teda have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Shandong Luneng 2-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 55%, Tianjin Teda 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Shandong Luneng and 69% for Tianjin Teda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Shandong Luneng's games and 69% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 69% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Tianjin Teda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Tianjin Teda 2-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.25 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.84 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.27 / defence 0.79 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.74 / defence 0.98, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 69% | Draw 19% | Tianjin Teda 12%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 66%, Tianjin Teda 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shandong Luneng 1.64 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.