Shandong Luneng 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs SHANGHAI SIPG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 August 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Shandong Luneng (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 6W 3D 1L at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
SHANGHAI SIPG's overall Super League record this term: 10W 0D 0L from 10 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, SHANGHAI SIPG are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Shandong Luneng 1W, SHANGHAI SIPG 2W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 3–4 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
SHANGHAI SIPG — key trading statistics (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 53% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 53% | SHANGHAI SIPG 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.24 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.094 / defence 1.006 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.584 / defence 0.647. League average goals — home 1.754 / away 1.340. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence strength of 0.647 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.584 — the away xG of 2.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Shandong Luneng games / 51 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 21% | Draw 21% | SHANGHAI SIPG 57%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 4.76 | Draw 4.76 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.75. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Shandong Luneng 70% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 21% | Draw 21% | SHANGHAI SIPG 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.24 / SHANGHAI SIPG 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.094 / def 1.006 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.584 / def 0.647 | league avg home 1.754 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
2.13
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Shandong Luneng 0 - 1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Shandong Luneng vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 21% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 57% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Shandong Luneng and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (5 meetings): Shandong Luneng 1W | Draws 2 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.58x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 2.13.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
21%
4.72
21%
4.68
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
0 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.38
2.13
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
4.72
21%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
12%
8.46
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
3%
39.89
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 2.13 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Shandong Luneng have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 25W 17D 9L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 37W 9D 5L from 51 games, 2.35 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shandong Luneng.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shandong Luneng have posted 2.33 PPG from 24 outings (17W 5D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 18W 4D 2L from 24 away games — 2.42 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.61 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG in 61%.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 25W 17D 9L in their last 51 games (1.80 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 37W 9D 5L in their last 51 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.33 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.42 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shandong Luneng
4
Draws
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 3, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 0-1 Shandong Luneng.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 58%, SHANGHAI SIPG 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Shandong Luneng and 67% for SHANGHAI SIPG. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 42% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 67% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Shandong Luneng and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Shandong Luneng 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Shandong Luneng 0-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.24 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.13 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shandong Luneng fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SHANGHAI SIPG landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.09 / defence 1.01 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.58 / defence 0.65, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 21% | Draw 21% | SHANGHAI SIPG 57%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 53%, SHANGHAI SIPG 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.80. Form held, and they took the win. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.