Shandong Luneng 4-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shandong Luneng face Hangzhou Greentown.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 13:35 UK time.
Form
Shandong Luneng (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Shandong Luneng at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Shandong Luneng against 1.00 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Shandong Luneng, 2 for Hangzhou Greentown and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Shandong Luneng 3–3 Hangzhou Greentown — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 53% versus Hangzhou Greentown 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shandong Luneng 55% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.62 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 0.957 / defence 0.913 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.001 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.406. Data: built from Shandong Luneng's last 41 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 41.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 44% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 29%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.27 | Draw 3.68 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.62 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Shandong Luneng's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shandong Luneng 50% (last 10 home games) | Hangzhou Greentown 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, matchday 12 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 44% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Shandong Luneng 1.62 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 0.957 / def 0.913 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.001 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Hangzhou Greentown xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown FAQs
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Shandong Luneng 4 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Super League fixture (matchday 12) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 44% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 0.96x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.00x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Shandong Luneng's last 41 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.68
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.91
1.28
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
6%
17.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.28 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 60 games, going 29W 19D 12L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.55 PPG from 60 outings (27W 12D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for Shandong Luneng against 1.55 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 20W 6D 4L across their last 30 home games, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 1.23 points per game from their last 30 away games (10W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.87 scored and 1.57 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown in 65%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Shandong Luneng (Home) vs Hangzhou Greentown (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown Form FAQs
What form are Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 29W 19D 12L in their last 60 games (1.77 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.20 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown, the earliest from June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won Shandong Luneng 5-0 Hangzhou Greentown on 17 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shandong Luneng
2
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shandong Luneng have won 5, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Shandong Luneng 5-0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 53%, Hangzhou Greentown 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Shandong Luneng and 77% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Shandong Luneng's games and 67% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 77% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Hangzhou Greentown 4-2 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.62 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.28 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 44% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 29%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 55%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shandong Luneng 1.77 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.