Shandong Luneng 2-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng host Dalian Aerbin at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 June 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Shandong Luneng at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Dalian Aerbin — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dalian Aerbin away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Shandong Luneng) versus 1.70 (Dalian Aerbin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Shandong Luneng, 0 for Dalian Aerbin and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2022, ended 3–1 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 48% versus Dalian Aerbin 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 61% | Dalian Aerbin 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.15 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.339 / defence 0.780 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.855 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.308. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.339 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shandong Luneng's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Shandong Luneng games / 44 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 65% | Draw 22% | Dalian Aerbin 13%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.54 | Draw 4.55 | Dalian Aerbin 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (65%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Shandong Luneng 30% | Dalian Aerbin 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 65% | Draw 22% | Dalian Aerbin 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 53% | xG Shandong Luneng 2.15 / Dalian Aerbin 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.339 / def 0.780 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.855 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Dalian Aerbin xG
53%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin?
Shandong Luneng 2 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 65% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (2 meetings): Shandong Luneng 2W | Draws 0 | Dalian Aerbin 0W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Dalian Aerbin in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shandong Luneng's attack rating (1.34) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
65%
1.53
22%
4.59
13%
7.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.02
0.87
Dalian Aerbin xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
7.78
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
12%
8.56
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
2%
66.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.87 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 56 games, going 40W 9D 7L for 2.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 1.21 PPG from 56 outings (19W 11D 26L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 24W 3D 1L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 1.14 points per game from 28 outings (9W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.39 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.29 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 40W 9D 7L in their last 56 games (2.30 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 19W 11D 26L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.68 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jun 2022, when Shandong Luneng won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Shandong Luneng
1
Draws
0
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Dalian Aerbin?
From 4 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 23 September 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 0-0 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Dalian Aerbin?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 39%, Dalian Aerbin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Shandong Luneng and 64% for Dalian Aerbin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Dalian Aerbin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 50% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 64% of Dalian Aerbin's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Dalian Aerbin 2-0 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.15 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.87 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dalian Aerbin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.34 / defence 0.78 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 65% | Draw 22% | Dalian Aerbin 13%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 61%, Dalian Aerbin 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.