Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Qingdao Youth Island face Tianjin Teda.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Guzhenkou University Sports Center plays host to Qingdao Youth Island versus Tianjin Teda in Super League (matchday 10). Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time.

Form

Qingdao Youth Island (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Tianjin Teda have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Qingdao Youth Island against 1.40 for Tianjin Teda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Tianjin Teda edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2025, ended Qingdao Youth Island 0–0 Tianjin Teda — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Qingdao Youth Island goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 60% versus Tianjin Teda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 57% | Tianjin Teda 58%). Note also that Tianjin Teda surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Qingdao Youth Island recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.08 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.699 / defence 0.843 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.194 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.192. Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating of 0.699 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Qingdao Youth Island's last 39 games and Tianjin Teda's last 39.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 33% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 39%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 3.03 | Draw 3.52 | Tianjin Teda 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Qingdao Youth Island 50% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights