Qingdao Youth Island 1-3 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium plays host to Qingdao Youth Island versus Tianjin Teda in Super League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Wednesday 10 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Tianjin Teda have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 0.74 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.811 / defence 0.948 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.136 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.408. Tianjin Teda's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 4 Qingdao Youth Island games / 34 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 18% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 56%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 5.56 | Draw 3.85 | Tianjin Teda 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 18% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 0.74 / Tianjin Teda 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.811 / def 0.948 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.136 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Tianjin Teda xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 10 April 2024 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda?
Qingdao Youth Island 1 - 3 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 18% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 56% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Tianjin Teda away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating (0.81) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (1.14x) against Qingdao Youth Island's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-2 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
18%
5.49
26%
3.85
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.26
1.52
Tianjin Teda xG
5.49
18%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
4%
24.98
27%
3.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 15.9 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.52 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
Tianjin Teda
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Qingdao Youth Island
3
Draws
2
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda?
From 5 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, Tianjin Teda have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Tianjin Teda cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Qingdao Youth Island.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Qingdao Youth Island 1-3 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 0.74 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.52 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Tianjin Teda outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.81 / defence 0.95 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.14 / defence 0.73, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 18% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 56%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.