Qingdao Youth Island 2-0 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Qingdao Youth Island welcome Shandong Luneng to Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Youth Island stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island's form when playing at home: 3W 7D 0L across 10 games at Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Qingdao Youth Island) versus 1.60 (Shandong Luneng). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Qingdao Youth Island register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Shandong Luneng in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Qingdao Youth Island, 2 for Shandong Luneng and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Youth Island 58% and Shandong Luneng 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 45% | Shandong Luneng 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.44 xG and Shandong Luneng 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.831 / defence 0.719 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.015 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.342. Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Qingdao Youth Island games / 53 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 48% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 26%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Shandong Luneng 3.85. Qingdao Youth Island hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Qingdao Youth Island 70% | Shandong Luneng 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 48% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.44 / Shandong Luneng 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.831 / def 0.719 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.015 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Shandong Luneng xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng?
Qingdao Youth Island 2 - 0 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 48% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng?
Record (5 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 1W | Draws 2 | Shandong Luneng 2W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating (0.83) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.75
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.42
0.98
Shandong Luneng xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
6%
16.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 0.98 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Youth Island's recent record stands at 17W 22D 14L from 53 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 15L across 53 games — 1.74 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Youth Island on 1.38 PPG, Shandong Luneng on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Qingdao Youth Island have managed 9W 13D 4L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 10W 5D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.09 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shandong Luneng in 74%.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 17W 22D 14L in their last 53 games (1.38 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 27W 11D 15L in their last 53 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Qingdao Youth Island's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 1.54 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2025, when Shandong Luneng won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Qingdao Youth Island
2
Draws
2
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, Shandong Luneng have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 2-0 Shandong Luneng.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Qingdao Youth Island at 62%, Shandong Luneng at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 73% (Shandong Luneng). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Qingdao Youth Island's games and 73% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Qingdao Youth Island's matches and 73% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Youth Island cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shandong Luneng.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Shandong Luneng 2-0 at Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.44 xG and Shandong Luneng 0.98 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shandong Luneng landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.83 / defence 0.72 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 48% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 26%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 45%, Shandong Luneng 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.38 PPG, Shandong Luneng 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.