Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 November 2026, 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 0W 0D 10L from 10 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Qingdao Jonoon's home record at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.00 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sichuan Jiuniu away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sichuan Jiuniu are 0.90 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Sichuan Jiuniu 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 57% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 53% | Sichuan Jiuniu 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.38 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.687 / defence 1.443 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.827 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.404. Qingdao Jonoon's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Qingdao Jonoon games / 58 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 31% | Draw 26% | Sichuan Jiuniu 43%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Sichuan Jiuniu 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sichuan Jiuniu as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Sichuan Jiuniu 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 31% | Draw 26% | Sichuan Jiuniu 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.38 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.687 / def 1.443 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.827 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 31% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (5 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 2W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 3W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Sichuan Jiuniu's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
31%
3.25
26%
3.89
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.06
1.68
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
6%
17.34
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.68 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 11W 13D 34L from 58 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Sichuan Jiuniu, meanwhile, have gone 16W 8D 34L across 58 games — 0.97 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Jonoon on 0.79 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 9W 8D 12L from 29 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.79 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record stands at 4W 3D 22L across 29 trips, a 0.52 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sichuan Jiuniu's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.24 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 11W 13D 34L in their last 58 games (0.79 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 16W 8D 34L in their last 58 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.21 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sichuan Jiuniu have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jul 2025, when Sichuan Jiuniu won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Sichuan Jiuniu specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
0
Draws
3
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 5 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 3-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Sichuan Jiuniu have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 52%, Sichuan Jiuniu 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 62% (Sichuan Jiuniu). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 34% of games; Sichuan Jiuniu in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 48% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Qingdao Jonoon's matches and 62% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.