Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Shandong Luneng travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon in Super League (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Friday 5 April 2024 at 13:35 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Qingdao Jonoon stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Shandong Luneng — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Shandong Luneng have posted 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shandong Luneng are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Qingdao Jonoon, 2 for Shandong Luneng and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2023, ended Qingdao Jonoon 2–4 Shandong Luneng — a Shandong Luneng win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.

Shandong Luneng trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Shandong Luneng 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Shandong Luneng 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Qingdao Jonoon surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Shandong Luneng have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.05 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.909 / defence 1.021 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.004 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.298. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 33 games and Shandong Luneng's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 30% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 43%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 3.39 | Draw 3.64 | Shandong Luneng 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 50% (last 10 home games) | Shandong Luneng 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Qingdao Jonoon 33 games, Shandong Luneng 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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