Qingdao Jonoon 2-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Qingdao Jonoon face Henan Jianye.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon host Henan Jianye at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League (matchday 17). Kick-off is Monday 17 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Qingdao Jonoon's home record over their last 8 home games: 3W 2D 3L (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Henan Jianye stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Qingdao Jonoon at 0.90 PPG versus Henan Jianye's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Qingdao Jonoon, 0 for Henan Jianye and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2023, ended Qingdao Jonoon 0–0 Henan Jianye — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (last 16 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Henan Jianye in-play and half-time data (last 16 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 38% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 50% versus Henan Jianye 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Henan Jianye 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.49 xG and Henan Jianye 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.987 / defence 0.963 | Henan Jianye attack 0.801 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.216. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 16 games and Henan Jianye's last 49.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 48% | Draw 31% | Henan Jianye 22%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.09 | Draw 3.27 | Henan Jianye 4.65. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 38% (last 8 home games) | Henan Jianye 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, matchday 17 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 17 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 48% | Draw 31% | Henan Jianye 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.49 / Henan Jianye 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.987 / def 0.963 | Henan Jianye attack 0.801 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Henan Jianye xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye FAQs
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Monday 17 July 2023 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Qingdao Jonoon 2 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye is a Super League fixture (matchday 17) (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 48% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 0.99x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 16 games and Henan Jianye's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
48%
2.09
31%
3.27
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.43
0.94
Henan Jianye xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
5%
20.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 0.94 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Jonoon come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 4D 9L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 0.94 PPG from 16 outings (3W 6D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Jonoon on 0.81 PPG, Henan Jianye on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Qingdao Jonoon's home form reads 3W 2D 3L across their last 8 home games, a 1.38 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.81 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 0.62 points per game from their last 8 away games (1W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 0.81 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon (Home) vs Henan Jianye (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye Form FAQs
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 3W 4D 9L in their last 16 games (0.81 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 3W 6D 7L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Henan Jianye away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.38 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 17 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Jul 2026, when Henan Jianye won Henan Jianye 5-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
4
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Henan Jianye have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 July 2026: Henan Jianye 5-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 38%, Henan Jianye 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 25% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 38% of games; Henan Jianye in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 50% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 25% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 38% of Henan Jianye's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Jonoon cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Henan Jianye.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Henan Jianye 2-0 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.49 xG and Henan Jianye 0.94 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Henan Jianye landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against Henan Jianye attack 0.80 / defence 1.03, drawn from 16/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 48% | Draw 31% | Henan Jianye 22%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 50%, Henan Jianye 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.81 PPG, Henan Jianye 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.