Qingdao Jonoon 0-3 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon host Hangzhou Greentown at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 25 June 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Qingdao Jonoon's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Qingdao Jonoon at 1.00 PPG versus Hangzhou Greentown's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Qingdao Jonoon register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 3–4 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 40% versus Hangzhou Greentown 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.58 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.836 / defence 0.859 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.065 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.350. Data: 44 Qingdao Jonoon games / 44 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 45% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 30%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.33. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Hangzhou Greentown 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Jun 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 45% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.58 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.836 / def 0.859 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.065 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Hangzhou Greentown xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 25 June 2025 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Qingdao Jonoon 0 - 3 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 45% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (4 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 1W | Draws 2 | Hangzhou Greentown 1W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
45%
2.22
25%
3.94
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.81
1.24
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.24 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Jonoon come into this having played 60 games, going 15W 12D 33L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.55 PPG from 60 outings (27W 12D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Qingdao Jonoon's home form reads 13W 6D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 1.23 points per game from 30 outings (10W 7D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.87 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 15W 12D 33L in their last 60 games (0.95 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.50 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hangzhou Greentown go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jun 2025, when Hangzhou Greentown won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
3
Draws
4
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 14 July 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Hangzhou Greentown 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Qingdao Jonoon and 77% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 67% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's matches and 77% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hangzhou Greentown run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-3 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.58 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.24 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.84 / defence 0.86 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.06 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 45% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 30%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 43%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.