Qingdao Jonoon 2-0 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.

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Match Analysis

Qingdao Jonoon host Hangzhou Greentown at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 14 April 2024 at 13:35 UK time.

Form Guide

Qingdao Jonoon — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Qingdao Jonoon's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Hangzhou Greentown away from home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hangzhou Greentown — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Qingdao Jonoon, 0 for Hangzhou Greentown and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2023, ended Qingdao Jonoon 0–0 Hangzhou Greentown — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.

Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Hangzhou Greentown 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Hangzhou Greentown 73%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Qingdao Jonoon surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Hangzhou Greentown have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.13 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.793 / defence 0.989 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.031 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.343. Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating of 0.793 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 35 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 35.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 31% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 42%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 3.25 | Draw 3.71 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though recent form (Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 50% (last 10 home games) | Hangzhou Greentown 80% (last 10 away games).

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