Qingdao Huanghai 1-4 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shenzhen Ruby FC at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Huanghai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Qingdao Huanghai and Shenzhen Ruby FC meet at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 27 July 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Qingdao Huanghai's overall Super League record this term: 2W 1D 5L from 8 games (0.88 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.38 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 12% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Huanghai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Qingdao Huanghai have gone 2W 0D 2L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.88 — Qingdao Huanghai are significantly better at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all games): 4W 3D 1L across 8 Super League outings this term — 1.88 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.62 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC away from home this season: 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Shenzhen Ruby FC arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.88 vs 0.88) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Qingdao Huanghai, 0 for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Qingdao Huanghai — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 75% of games.
Shenzhen Ruby FC — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Qingdao Huanghai 12% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 50%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Huanghai 25% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Huanghai 0.78 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.768 / defence 1.585 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.159 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 0.925 / away 1.166. Qingdao Huanghai's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Qingdao Huanghai games / 8 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 10% | Draw 24% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 66%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Huanghai 10.00 | Draw 4.17 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Shenzhen Ruby FC (66%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shenzhen Ruby FC are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Qingdao Huanghai 25% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Huanghai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Jul 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 10% | Draw 24% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 50% | xG Qingdao Huanghai 0.78 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.768 / def 1.585 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.159 / def 1.092 | league avg home 0.925 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Shenzhen Ruby FC (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Expected Goals
2.14
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
50%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Huanghai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 27 July 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Qingdao Huanghai 1 - 4 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Qingdao Huanghai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Huanghai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Huanghai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Huanghai a 10% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 66% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shenzhen Ruby FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Qingdao Huanghai and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Huanghai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Huanghai 0W | Draws 1 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W.
What form are Qingdao Huanghai and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Qingdao Huanghai (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.38 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 4W-3D-1L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Qingdao Huanghai's attack rating (0.77) and Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack (1.16x) against Qingdao Huanghai's defence (1.58x) — and the away total comes out at 2.14.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenzhen Ruby FC Win
10%
10.43
24%
4.12
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Total xG
2.92
2.14
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
10.43
10%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
12%
8.52
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
1%
88.81
30%
3.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 11.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Huanghai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Qingdao Huanghai and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Qingdao Huanghai and 2.14 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Huanghai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Qingdao Huanghai have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 2W 1D 5L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Qingdao Huanghai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form line: 4W 3D 1L from 8 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shenzhen Ruby FC are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Huanghai.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Qingdao Huanghai have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Qingdao Huanghai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenzhen Ruby FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Qingdao Huanghai are averaging 0.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.62 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Huanghai have seen both teams score in 12% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shenzhen Ruby FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Huanghai
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Huanghai and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Qingdao Huanghai have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 4W 3D 1L in their last 8 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Huanghai at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Huanghai at home: 1.50 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Qingdao Huanghai or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Huanghai have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Qingdao Huanghai
1
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Huanghai and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2021, when Qingdao Huanghai 1-4 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Huanghai and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Qingdao Huanghai see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Huanghai 25%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Qingdao Huanghai and 75% for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Huanghai have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Huanghai home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Huanghai play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Qingdao Huanghai's recent matches and 50% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Huanghai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Qingdao Huanghai's matches and 75% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Qingdao Huanghai and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Qingdao Huanghai have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shenzhen Ruby FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Qingdao Huanghai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Qingdao Huanghai 1-4 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Huanghai 0.78 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.14 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC outscored their 2.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.77 / defence 1.58 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.09, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Huanghai 10% | Draw 24% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 66%, with Shenzhen Ruby FC to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Huanghai 25%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Huanghai's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 12% of their matches — today it did.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shenzhen Ruby FC arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Qingdao Huanghai (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.