Nantong Zhiyun 1-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantong Zhiyun vs Tianjin Teda encounter.

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Match Analysis

Nantong Zhiyun host Tianjin Teda at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 25 June 2024 at 12:35 UTC.

Form Guide

Nantong Zhiyun — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Tianjin Teda — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Nantong Zhiyun, 1 for Tianjin Teda and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Nantong Zhiyun trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Tianjin Teda trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nantong Zhiyun 57% and Tianjin Teda 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nantong Zhiyun 33% | Tianjin Teda 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 1.16 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.682 / defence 1.109 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.258 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.385. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Tianjin Teda have an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — the away xG of 1.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Nantong Zhiyun games / 45 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 22% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 55%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Tianjin Teda 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Form averages suggest only ~1.5 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 60% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nantong Zhiyun 50% | Tianjin Teda 60% BTTS from recent games.

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