Nantong Zhiyun 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantong Zhiyun vs SHANGHAI SIPG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG make the trip to Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Nantong Zhiyun in Super League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 29 September 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Nantong Zhiyun (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantong Zhiyun at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L D L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SHANGHAI SIPG are 1.20 PPG clear of Nantong Zhiyun in recent Super League fixtures (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Nantong Zhiyun have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Nantong Zhiyun, 1 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jun 2023, ended 1–2 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Nantong Zhiyun half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
SHANGHAI SIPG half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nantong Zhiyun 62% and SHANGHAI SIPG 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantong Zhiyun 31% | SHANGHAI SIPG 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 0.68 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.596 / defence 1.254 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.576 / defence 0.753. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.181. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.596 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence strength of 0.753 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.576 — the away xG of 2.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Nantong Zhiyun games / 60 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 9% | Draw 17% | SHANGHAI SIPG 74%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 11.11 | Draw 5.88 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.35. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Nantong Zhiyun 60% | SHANGHAI SIPG 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Sep 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 9% | Draw 17% | SHANGHAI SIPG 74% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 45% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 0.68 / SHANGHAI SIPG 2.33 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.596 / def 1.254 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.576 / def 0.753 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
2.33
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
45%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 29 September 2023 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Nantong Zhiyun 0 - 1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 9% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 74% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (1 meetings): Nantong Zhiyun 0W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1W.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nantong Zhiyun's attack rating (0.60) and SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.58x) against Nantong Zhiyun's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 2.33.
These ratings are built from 26/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-3 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
9%
11.29
17%
5.93
74%
1.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
0 – 3
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
3.01
2.33
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
11.29
9%
Home win
5.93
17%
Draw
1.35
74%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
10%
10.32
51%
1.97
Win to Nil
1%
116.47
38%
2.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 10.4 | 6.1 | 2.8 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 2.33 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Nantong Zhiyun have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 3W 10D 13L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 17W 5D 4L from 26 games, 2.15 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 1.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nantong Zhiyun.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 0.83 PPG from 12 outings (2W 4D 6L).
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 8W 2D 2L from 12 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.12 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nantong Zhiyun have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 62%.
Last 26 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Nantong Zhiyun have gone 3W 10D 13L in their last 26 games (0.73 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 17W 5D 4L in their last 26 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantong Zhiyun at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantong Zhiyun at home: 0.83 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Nantong Zhiyun or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantong Zhiyun have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SHANGHAI SIPG have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 8-1 on 26 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nantong Zhiyun
0
Draws
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2024, when SHANGHAI SIPG 8-1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantong Zhiyun see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantong Zhiyun 50%, SHANGHAI SIPG 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Nantong Zhiyun) and 67% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 50%; Nantong Zhiyun have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantong Zhiyun play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent matches and 50% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantong Zhiyun vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent games and 67% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantong Zhiyun and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Nantong Zhiyun have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Nantong Zhiyun 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Nantong Zhiyun 0-1 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 0.68 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.33 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SHANGHAI SIPG landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.60 / defence 1.25 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.58 / defence 0.75, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 9% | Draw 17% | SHANGHAI SIPG 74%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 74%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantong Zhiyun 31%, SHANGHAI SIPG 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.