Nantong Zhiyun 2-2 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nantong Zhiyun host Meizhou Kejia at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 2W 1D 3L this season (6 games, 1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Nantong Zhiyun are significantly better at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Meizhou Kejia stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Meizhou Kejia have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nantong Zhiyun at 0.50 PPG versus Meizhou Kejia's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Nantong Zhiyun in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantong Zhiyun 46% versus Meizhou Kejia 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantong Zhiyun 31% | Meizhou Kejia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 1.11 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.626 / defence 1.156 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.919 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.295. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.626 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Meizhou Kejia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Nantong Zhiyun's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Nantong Zhiyun games / 47 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 29% | Draw 30% | Meizhou Kejia 41%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Meizhou Kejia 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Meizhou Kejia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nantong Zhiyun 33% | Meizhou Kejia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 29% | Draw 30% | Meizhou Kejia 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 1.11 / Meizhou Kejia 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.626 / def 1.156 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.919 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Meizhou Kejia xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 2 July 2023 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia?
Nantong Zhiyun 2 - 2 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 29% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia in?
Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nantong Zhiyun's attack at 0.63x the league average against Meizhou Kejia's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Nantong Zhiyun's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
29%
3.45
30%
3.38
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.49
1.38
Meizhou Kejia xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
7%
13.65
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.38 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nantong Zhiyun's recent record stands at 2W 3D 8L from 13 games, a 0.69 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Meizhou Kejia, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 8L across 13 games — 0.69 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nantong Zhiyun on 0.69 PPG, Meizhou Kejia on 0.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nantong Zhiyun have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.69 PPG overall — Nantong Zhiyun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Meizhou Kejia's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nantong Zhiyun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.15 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Nantong Zhiyun have gone 2W 3D 8L in their last 13 games (0.69 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 2W 3D 8L in their last 13 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantong Zhiyun at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Nantong Zhiyun's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantong Zhiyun at home: 1.17 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Nantong Zhiyun won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nantong Zhiyun's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nantong Zhiyun
1
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 2, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 13 July 2024, when Meizhou Kejia 2-1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia?
Nantong Zhiyun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantong Zhiyun 33%, Meizhou Kejia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Nantong Zhiyun) and 67% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Nantong Zhiyun keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nantong Zhiyun have failed to score in 33% of games; Meizhou Kejia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantong Zhiyun play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent matches and 67% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent games and 67% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Nantong Zhiyun have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Nantong Zhiyun and Meizhou Kejia drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 1.11 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.38 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Nantong Zhiyun beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.63 / defence 1.16 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.92 / defence 1.29, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 29% | Draw 30% | Meizhou Kejia 41%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantong Zhiyun 31%, Meizhou Kejia 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantong Zhiyun 0.69 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.