Nantong Zhiyun 1-1 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantong Zhiyun vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nantong Zhiyun host Dalian Aerbin at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 12 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 2W 2D 3L at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium — 1.14 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.14 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Nantong Zhiyun are significantly better at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Aerbin stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nantong Zhiyun at 0.60 PPG versus Dalian Aerbin's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Nantong Zhiyun, 1 for Dalian Aerbin and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Dalian Aerbin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Nantong Zhiyun in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantong Zhiyun 53% versus Dalian Aerbin 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nantong Zhiyun 33% | Dalian Aerbin 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 0.90 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.678 / defence 1.233 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.745 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.247. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Nantong Zhiyun games / 49 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 27% | Draw 33% | Dalian Aerbin 40%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Dalian Aerbin 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Aerbin are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nantong Zhiyun 43% | Dalian Aerbin 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 27% | Draw 33% | Dalian Aerbin 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 0.90 / Dalian Aerbin 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.678 / def 1.233 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.745 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Dalian Aerbin xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 12 July 2023 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Dalian Aerbin?
Nantong Zhiyun 1 - 1 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 27% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (1 meetings): Nantong Zhiyun 0W | Draws 0 | Dalian Aerbin 1W.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Dalian Aerbin in?
Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nantong Zhiyun's attack at 0.68x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Nantong Zhiyun's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
27%
3.72
33%
2.99
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.04
1.15
Dalian Aerbin xG
3.72
27%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.8 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.15 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Nantong Zhiyun have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 2W 5D 8L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalian Aerbin's form line: 1W 7D 7L from 15 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nantong Zhiyun on 0.73 PPG, Dalian Aerbin on 0.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 1.14 PPG from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Nantong Zhiyun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 0W 2D 5L from 7 away games — 0.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nantong Zhiyun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 0.80 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dalian Aerbin in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Nantong Zhiyun have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 games (0.73 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 7D 7L in their last 15 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantong Zhiyun at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Nantong Zhiyun's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantong Zhiyun at home: 1.14 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantong Zhiyun and Dalian Aerbin runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nantong Zhiyun
1
Draws
1
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Dalian Aerbin?
From 2 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2023, when Nantong Zhiyun 1-1 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Dalian Aerbin?
Dalian Aerbin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantong Zhiyun 43%, Dalian Aerbin 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Nantong Zhiyun) and 29% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Nantong Zhiyun have failed to score in 29% of games; Dalian Aerbin in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantong Zhiyun play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent matches and 43% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantong Zhiyun vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent games and 29% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantong Zhiyun and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Nantong Zhiyun have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nantong Zhiyun and Dalian Aerbin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Nantong Zhiyun and Dalian Aerbin drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 0.90 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.15 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.68 / defence 1.23 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.74 / defence 0.94, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 27% | Draw 33% | Dalian Aerbin 40%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantong Zhiyun 33%, Dalian Aerbin 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantong Zhiyun 0.73 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.