Meizhou Kejia 1-4 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 45%, yet in-form Yunnan Yukun provide a compelling counter-argument — this Meizhou Kejia vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Yunnan Yukun make the trip to Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre to face Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 24 October 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Meizhou Kejia have posted 2W 1D 7L at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Yunnan Yukun's overall Super League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yunnan Yukun away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Yunnan Yukun are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Yunnan Yukun in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Meizhou Kejia 0W, Yunnan Yukun 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Yunnan Yukun winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Meizhou Kejia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Yunnan Yukun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Meizhou Kejia 67% and Yunnan Yukun 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 74% | Yunnan Yukun 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.84 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.849 / defence 1.259 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.865 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.839 / away 1.355. Data: 57 Meizhou Kejia games / 27 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 45% | Draw 25% | Yunnan Yukun 30%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Yunnan Yukun 3.33. Meizhou Kejia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Yunnan Yukun (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 60% | Yunnan Yukun 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 24 Oct 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 45% | Draw 25% | Yunnan Yukun 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.84 / Yunnan Yukun 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.849 / def 1.259 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.865 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.839 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Yunnan Yukun xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 24 October 2025 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Yunnan Yukun?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 4 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 45% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Yunnan Yukun?
Record (1 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 0W | Draws 0 | Yunnan Yukun 1W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Yunnan Yukun in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Meizhou Kejia's attack at 0.85x the league average against Yunnan Yukun's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Yunnan Yukun's attack (0.86x) against Meizhou Kejia's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
45%
2.21
25%
4.03
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
3.32
1.48
Yunnan Yukun xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
5%
21.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.48 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Yunnan Yukun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Meizhou Kejia's recent record stands at 5W 5D 17L from 27 games, a 0.74 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Yunnan Yukun, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 10L across 27 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Yunnan Yukun by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Meizhou Kejia heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Meizhou Kejia have managed 4W 1D 8L from 13 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Yunnan Yukun's away record stands at 2W 4D 7L across 13 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yunnan Yukun's season.
Attack vs Defence
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Yunnan Yukun are on 1.52 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Yunnan Yukun in 74%.
Last 27 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Yunnan Yukun in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 5W 5D 17L in their last 27 games (0.74 PPG), while Yunnan Yukun have gone 9W 8D 10L in their last 27 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Yunnan Yukun away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.00 PPG; Yunnan Yukun away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Meizhou Kejia
0
Draws
2
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Yunnan Yukun?
From 2 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 1-4 Yunnan Yukun.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Yunnan Yukun?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Meizhou Kejia, 77% for Yunnan Yukun — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 92% for Meizhou Kejia and 62% for Yunnan Yukun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Yunnan Yukun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 77% of Yunnan Yukun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Yunnan Yukun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 92% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 62% of Yunnan Yukun's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Yunnan Yukun tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Yunnan Yukun in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Yunnan Yukun run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Meizhou Kejia 1-4 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.84 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.48 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Yunnan Yukun outscored their 1.48 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.85 / defence 1.26 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.86 / defence 1.18, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 45% | Draw 25% | Yunnan Yukun 30%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Yunnan Yukun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 74%, Yunnan Yukun 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Yunnan Yukun arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.