Meizhou Kejia 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hangzhou Greentown (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Meizhou Kejia face Hangzhou Greentown.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Meizhou Kejia host Hangzhou Greentown at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre in Super League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 August 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Meizhou Kejia are significantly better at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hangzhou Greentown are 1.40 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Hangzhou Greentown, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Meizhou Kejia.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Hangzhou Greentown have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Meizhou Kejia 59% and Hangzhou Greentown 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Meizhou Kejia 65% | Hangzhou Greentown 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.55 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 2.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.911 / defence 1.440 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.237 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.376. Hangzhou Greentown have an above-average attack strength of 1.237 — the away xG of 2.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Meizhou Kejia games / 52 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 23% | Draw 21% | Hangzhou Greentown 56%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 4.35 | Draw 4.76 | Hangzhou Greentown 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 2.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 70% | Hangzhou Greentown 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 23% | Draw 21% | Hangzhou Greentown 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 73% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.55 / Hangzhou Greentown 2.45 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.911 / def 1.440 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.237 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
2.45
Hangzhou Greentown xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Meizhou Kejia 2 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 23% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 56% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (7 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 0W | Draws 3 | Hangzhou Greentown 4W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Meizhou Kejia's attack rating (0.91) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 2.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 1-3 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
23%
4.44
21%
4.74
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.0%
Away win
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
4.00
2.45
Hangzhou Greentown xG
4.44
23%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.72
Clean Sheet
9%
11.62
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
2%
51.59
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 2.45 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Meizhou Kejia have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 10W 13D 28L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown's form line: 19W 11D 21L from 51 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hangzhou Greentown are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Meizhou Kejia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1.04 PPG from 25 outings (7W 5D 13L).
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 6W 3D 16L from 25 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hangzhou Greentown's season.
The Goals Picture
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.92 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown in 67%.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 10W 13D 28L in their last 51 games (0.84 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 19W 11D 21L in their last 51 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.04 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2024, when Hangzhou Greentown won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Meizhou Kejia
4
Draws
4
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 64%, Hangzhou Greentown 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Meizhou Kejia and 68% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Meizhou Kejia have failed to score in 28% of games; Hangzhou Greentown in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 52% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 68% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown finished level at 2-2 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.55 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 2.45 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.91 / defence 1.44 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.24 / defence 0.99, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 23% | Draw 21% | Hangzhou Greentown 56%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 65%, Hangzhou Greentown 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.