Henan Jianye 1-0 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu meet at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Current Form
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Henan Jianye's home record at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sichuan Jiuniu away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Henan Jianye's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Henan Jianye 2W, Sichuan Jiuniu 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2025, ended 4–1 with Henan Jianye winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sichuan Jiuniu — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 63% and Sichuan Jiuniu 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 55% | Sichuan Jiuniu 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.65 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.882 / defence 0.990 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.796 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.214. Data: 41 Henan Jianye games / 41 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 53% | Draw 26% | Sichuan Jiuniu 21%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Sichuan Jiuniu 4.76. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 70% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 53% | Draw 26% | Sichuan Jiuniu 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Henan Jianye 1.65 / Sichuan Jiuniu 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.882 / def 0.990 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.796 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 15 May 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Henan Jianye 1 - 0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 53% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (4 meetings): Henan Jianye 2W | Draws 1 | Sichuan Jiuniu 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 0.88x the league average against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.80x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.83
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.60
0.96
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
4%
24.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.96 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 19W 16D 25L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form line: 15W 11D 34L from 60 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Henan Jianye against 0.93 for Sichuan Jiuniu. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (12W 7D 11L).
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 5W 5D 20L from 30 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.07 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 15W 11D 34L in their last 60 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.43 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Henan Jianye have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 4-1 on 8 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
1
Draws
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 5 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 63%, Sichuan Jiuniu 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Henan Jianye) and 57% (Sichuan Jiuniu). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Henan Jianye's games and 47% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Henan Jianye's matches and 57% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.65 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.96 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.80 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 53% | Draw 26% | Sichuan Jiuniu 21%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 55%, Sichuan Jiuniu 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.22 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.