Henan Jianye 6-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Henan Jianye (68%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Henan Jianye face Shijiazhuang Y. J..
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Shijiazhuang Y. J. travel to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to take on Henan Jianye in Super League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023 at 09:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Henan Jianye — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Henan Jianye's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Henan Jianye have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Henan Jianye's games and 60% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s (from Henan Jianye's last 10 home games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Henan Jianye: 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Jun 2023, ended Henan Jianye 1–0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. — a Henan Jianye win.
The head-to-head data gives Henan Jianye an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 48% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 48% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.13 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.105 / defence 0.782 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.835 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.183. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating of 1.295 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Henan Jianye's projected output up. Henan Jianye have a tight defence (rating 0.782), which is pulling Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output down. Data: built from Henan Jianye's last 60 games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 61.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 68% | Draw 19% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 12%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.46 | Draw 5.18 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 8.18. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (68%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Henan Jianye's last 10 home games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Henan Jianye 60% (last 10 home games) | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, matchday 28 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 68% | Draw 19% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Henan Jianye 2.13 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.105 / def 0.782 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.835 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
48%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. FAQs
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Henan Jianye 6 - 0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Super League fixture (matchday 28) (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 68% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (1.10) and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Henan Jianye's last 60 games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
68%
1.46
19%
5.18
12%
8.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.90
0.77
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
8.18
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
12%
8.38
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
1%
68.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.77 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 24W 16D 20L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form line: 18W 17D 25L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.47 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.79 PPG from their last 29 home games (15W 7D 7L).
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 10W 6D 13L from their last 29 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.22 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Henan Jianye (Home) vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Henan Jianye
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Form FAQs
What form are Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.79 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 16 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Oct 2023, when Henan Jianye won Henan Jianye 6-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Henan Jianye have won 5, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2024: Henan Jianye 0-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 52%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Henan Jianye) and 62% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Henan Jianye's games and 59% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Henan Jianye's matches and 62% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 90% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 6-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.13 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.77 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.10 / defence 0.78 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.83 / defence 1.29, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 68% | Draw 19% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 12%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 48%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.47 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.