Henan Jianye 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG make the trip to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to face Henan Jianye in Super League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 5 July 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Henan Jianye have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 10W 0D 0L across 10 Super League outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SHANGHAI SIPG are 1.70 PPG clear of Henan Jianye in recent Super League fixtures (3.00 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Henan Jianye lead 2W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 1–3 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 57% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 51% | SHANGHAI SIPG 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.00 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.872 / defence 1.020 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.698 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.372. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence strength of 0.706 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.698 — the away xG of 2.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Henan Jianye games / 47 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 14% | Draw 18% | SHANGHAI SIPG 68%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 7.14 | Draw 5.56 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.47. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 70% | SHANGHAI SIPG 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 5 Jul 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 14% | Draw 18% | SHANGHAI SIPG 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 58% | xG Henan Jianye 1.00 / SHANGHAI SIPG 2.38 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.872 / def 1.020 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.698 / def 0.706 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
2.38
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 5 July 2024 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Henan Jianye 0 - 1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 14% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 68% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (5 meetings): Henan Jianye 2W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3W.
What form are Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 0.87x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.70x) against Henan Jianye's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 2.38.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
14%
7.14
18%
5.43
68%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.38
2.38
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
7.14
14%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
1.48
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
9%
10.76
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
1%
76.81
25%
4.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 2.38 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Henan Jianye come into this having played 47 games, going 14W 14D 19L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 2.30 PPG from 47 outings (33W 9D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Henan Jianye's home form reads 10W 8D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 2.42 points per game from 24 outings (18W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.43 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG in 62%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 14W 14D 19L in their last 47 games (1.19 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 33W 9D 5L in their last 47 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.58 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.42 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-1 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
0
Draws
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 58%, SHANGHAI SIPG 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Henan Jianye) and 67% (SHANGHAI SIPG). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 42% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Henan Jianye's matches and 67% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Henan Jianye 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Henan Jianye 0-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.00 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.38 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye fell 1.0 short of their projected output. SHANGHAI SIPG landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.70 / defence 0.71, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 14% | Draw 18% | SHANGHAI SIPG 68%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 51%, SHANGHAI SIPG 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.