Henan Jianye 2-0 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Relegation Round - 4 as Henan Jianye welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 3W 4D 1L this season (8 games, 1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record: 3W 2D 3L from 8 road trips in Super League this season (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Henan Jianye) versus 1.50 (Shanghai Shenhua). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Henan Jianye trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 53% versus Shanghai Shenhua 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Henan Jianye 18% | Shanghai Shenhua 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.37 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.944 / defence 1.034 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.993 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Shanghai Shenhua bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Henan Jianye's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Henan Jianye games / 14 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 36% | Draw 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 34%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 75% | Shanghai Shenhua 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Dec 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 36% | Draw 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Henan Jianye 1.37 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.944 / def 1.034 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.993 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Shanghai Shenhua xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 07:30 on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Henan Jianye 2 - 0 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 36% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
36%
2.78
30%
3.31
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.69
1.32
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
9%
11.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.32 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Henan Jianye come into this having played 17 games, going 4W 8D 5L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shanghai Shenhua sit at 1.71 PPG from 17 outings (8W 5D 4L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Henan Jianye's home form reads 3W 4D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Shanghai Shenhua have taken 1.38 points per game from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.71 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shanghai Shenhua in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 4W 8D 5L in their last 17 games (1.18 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 8W 5D 4L in their last 17 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.62 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2022, when Shanghai Shenhua won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
7
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 1, Shanghai Shenhua have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-3 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Henan Jianye at 75%, Shanghai Shenhua at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Henan Jianye) and 50% (Shanghai Shenhua).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Shanghai Shenhua?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Henan Jianye's games and 75% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 50% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shanghai Shenhua.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Shanghai Shenhua 2-0 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Relegation Round - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.37 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.32 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.99 / defence 1.25, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 36% | Draw 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 34%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 18%, Shanghai Shenhua 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Henan Jianye winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.