Henan Jianye 2-2 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Monday 30 June 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Henan Jianye have posted 5W 1D 4L at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shandong Luneng have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Henan Jianye, 3 for Shandong Luneng and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 52% versus Shandong Luneng 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 43% | Shandong Luneng 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.30 xG and Shandong Luneng 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.145 / defence 1.399 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.221 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.328. Shandong Luneng have an above-average attack strength of 1.221 — the away xG of 2.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Henan Jianye games / 45 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 41% | Draw 19% | Shandong Luneng 40%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.44 | Draw 5.26 | Shandong Luneng 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 19% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 81% | Total xG 4.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 81% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 2.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 40% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.57 combined xG gives a 83% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 81%. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 40% | Shandong Luneng 50%.
The outsider holds a 40% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 30 Jun 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 41% | Draw 19% | Shandong Luneng 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 81% | xG Henan Jianye 2.30 / Shandong Luneng 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.145 / def 1.399 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.221 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
2.27
Shandong Luneng xG
81%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:00 on Monday 30 June 2025 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Henan Jianye 2 - 2 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 41% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 40% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 81% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng?
Record (7 meetings): Henan Jianye 2W | Draws 2 | Shandong Luneng 3W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Shandong Luneng's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (1.22x) against Henan Jianye's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 2.27.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-2, at 7.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (6.2%), 1-2 (6.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 19% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
41%
2.44
19%
5.19
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
6.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
4.57
2.27
Shandong Luneng xG
2.44
41%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
67%
Over 3.5
1.49
33%
Under 3.5
3.03
48%
Over 4.5
2.08
52%
Under 4.5
1.92
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
81%
BTTS Yes
1.24
19%
BTTS No
5.18
Clean Sheet
10%
9.65
10%
10.01
Win to Nil
4%
23.50
4%
25.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 2.27 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 4.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 18W 18D 24L from 60 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 29W 19D 12L across 60 games — 1.77 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Henan Jianye heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Henan Jianye have managed 13W 9D 8L from 30 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 9W 13D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
Attack vs Defence
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.80 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 29W 19D 12L in their last 60 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.60 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 5-1 on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
4
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, Shandong Luneng have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Shandong Luneng 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 50%, Shandong Luneng 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Henan Jianye) and 43% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shandong Luneng in 33%; Shandong Luneng in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 53% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 43% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng finished level at 2-2 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.30 xG and Shandong Luneng 2.27 xG, a combined 4.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.15 / defence 1.40 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.22 / defence 1.20, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 41% | Draw 19% | Shandong Luneng 40%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 67% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 81% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 43%, Shandong Luneng 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.