Henan Jianye 3-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mission Hills Football Base Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 11 June 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Henan Jianye (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Henan Jianye are significantly better at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Hangzhou Greentown have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Henan Jianye against 2.00 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.06 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.304 / defence 1.074 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.722 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.112. Henan Jianye carry an above-average attack strength of 1.304 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 Henan Jianye games / 2 Hangzhou Greentown games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 65% | Draw 20% | Hangzhou Greentown 15%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Hangzhou Greentown 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 1.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 65% | Draw 20% | Hangzhou Greentown 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 50% | xG Henan Jianye 2.06 / Hangzhou Greentown 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.304 / def 1.074 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.722 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Hangzhou Greentown xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 11 June 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Henan Jianye 3 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 65% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 1.30x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (0.72x) against Henan Jianye's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
The sample (16/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
65%
1.54
20%
4.97
15%
6.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.92
0.86
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
6.78
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
13%
7.84
Win to Nil
28%
3.64
2%
53.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.86 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Henan Jianye come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L. It's still early in the season for Henan Jianye, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Henan Jianye are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 0.50 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Hangzhou Greentown in 0%.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Hangzhou Greentown in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Early Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Henan Jianye or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hangzhou Greentown won 3-0 on 30 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 9 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Hangzhou Greentown?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Henan Jianye cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-1 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.06 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 0.86 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.30 / defence 1.07 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.72 / defence 1.06, drawn from 16/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 65% | Draw 20% | Hangzhou Greentown 15%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 50%, Hangzhou Greentown 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Henan Jianye winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Henan Jianye scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Hangzhou Greentown shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.