Henan Jianye 1-0 Chongqing Lifan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Henan Jianye face Chongqing Lifan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Chongqing Lifan travel to Yuexiushan Stadium to take on Henan Jianye in Super League (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Monday 2 August 2021 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Henan Jianye's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 1L across their last 5 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Henan Jianye are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Chongqing Lifan stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Chongqing Lifan's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 4L across their last 5 road games (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Henan Jianye) versus 0.80 (Chongqing Lifan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Henan Jianye's last 5 home games and Chongqing Lifan's last 5 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Henan Jianye, 1 for Chongqing Lifan and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 May 2021, ended Henan Jianye 2–3 Chongqing Lifan — a Chongqing Lifan win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Henan Jianye trading profile (last 10 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Chongqing Lifan trading profile (last 10 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 60% and Chongqing Lifan 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 30% | Chongqing Lifan 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.64 xG and Chongqing Lifan 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.038 / defence 0.981 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.755 / defence 1.561. League average goals — home 1.013 / away 1.161. Chongqing Lifan's defence rating of 1.561 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Henan Jianye's projected output up. Chongqing Lifan's attack rating of 0.755 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Henan Jianye's last 10 games and Chongqing Lifan's last 10.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 52% | Draw 31% | Chongqing Lifan 16%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.91 | Draw 3.18 | Chongqing Lifan 6.20. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Henan Jianye 80% (last 5 home games) | Chongqing Lifan 80% (last 5 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Lifan | Competition: Super League, matchday 11 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 2 August 2021 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 52% | Draw 31% | Chongqing Lifan 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Henan Jianye 1.64 / Chongqing Lifan 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.038 / def 0.981 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.755 / def 1.561 | league avg home 1.013 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Chongqing Lifan xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Lifan FAQs
What time does Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Lifan kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Lifan kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Monday 2 August 2021 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Lifan?
Henan Jianye 1 - 0 Chongqing Lifan.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Lifan being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Lifan part of?
Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Lifan is a Super League fixture (matchday 11) (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 52% chance of winning, Chongqing Lifan a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Henan Jianye and Chongqing Lifan will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Lifan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 1.04x the league average against Chongqing Lifan's defence at 1.56x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chongqing Lifan's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Henan Jianye's last 10 games and Chongqing Lifan's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
52%
1.91
31%
3.18
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.50
0.86
Chongqing Lifan xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
3%
32.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.6 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Lifan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Chongqing Lifan expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.86 for Chongqing Lifan, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Lifan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Henan Jianye come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 5D 3L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Chongqing Lifan sit at 0.80 PPG from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.10 PPG, Chongqing Lifan on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Henan Jianye's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across their last 5 home games, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chongqing Lifan have taken 0.20 points per game from their last 5 away games (0W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 0.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chongqing Lifan's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Chongqing Lifan are on 1.30 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Chongqing Lifan in 60%.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Chongqing Lifan
Blended
Henan Jianye (Home) vs Chongqing Lifan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Henan Jianye
Blended
Chongqing Lifan
Blended
❓ Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Lifan Form FAQs
What form are Henan Jianye and Chongqing Lifan in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Chongqing Lifan have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Chongqing Lifan away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.60 PPG; Chongqing Lifan away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Chongqing Lifan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Chongqing Lifan in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 2 August 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Henan Jianye
0
Draws
1
Chongqing Lifan
Recent Meetings
❓ Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Lifan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Chongqing Lifan?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Henan Jianye have won 1, Chongqing Lifan have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Chongqing Lifan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2021: Henan Jianye 1-0 Chongqing Lifan.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Chongqing Lifan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Henan Jianye at 80%, Chongqing Lifan at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Henan Jianye) and 60% (Chongqing Lifan).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Chongqing Lifan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Lifan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Henan Jianye and Chongqing Lifan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Henan Jianye's games and 80% of Chongqing Lifan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Henan Jianye and Chongqing Lifan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 60% of Chongqing Lifan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Chongqing Lifan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 60% of Chongqing Lifan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Chongqing Lifan 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Chongqing Lifan 1-0 at Yuexiushan Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.64 xG and Chongqing Lifan 0.86 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chongqing Lifan landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Chongqing Lifan attack 0.76 / defence 1.56, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 52% | Draw 31% | Chongqing Lifan 16%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 30%, Chongqing Lifan 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chongqing Lifan's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.10 PPG, Chongqing Lifan 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Chongqing Lifan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.