Henan Jianye 3-0 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan meet at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beijing Guoan (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Henan Jianye's 2.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Beijing Guoan's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Henan Jianye register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Beijing Guoan in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 44% versus Beijing Guoan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 31% | Beijing Guoan 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.53 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.653 / defence 1.115 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.175 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.129. Henan Jianye carry an above-average attack strength of 1.653 — their λ of 2.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 24 Henan Jianye games / 24 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 60% | Draw 19% | Beijing Guoan 21%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.67 | Draw 5.26 | Beijing Guoan 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.53 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 70% | Beijing Guoan 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 60% | Draw 19% | Beijing Guoan 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 71% | xG Henan Jianye 2.53 / Beijing Guoan 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.653 / def 1.115 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.175 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.53
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Beijing Guoan xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
Henan Jianye 3 - 0 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 60% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 21% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (1.65x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.53. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.18x) against Henan Jianye's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.7%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
60%
1.66
19%
5.40
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.53
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
4.01
1.48
Beijing Guoan xG
1.66
60%
Home win
5.40
19%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.47
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
8%
12.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
2%
59.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 2.53 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.48 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 4.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 14W 11D 7L from 32 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 9L across 32 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.53 for Beijing Guoan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Henan Jianye have managed 10W 5D 1L from 16 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 5W 3D 8L across 16 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beijing Guoan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.28 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 14W 11D 7L in their last 32 games (1.66 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 13W 10D 9L in their last 32 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Henan Jianye's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 2.19 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Henan Jianye have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Henan Jianye
1
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan?
From 9 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 4, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan 1-2 Henan Jianye.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 69%, Beijing Guoan 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Henan Jianye) and 56% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Henan Jianye's games and 56% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 56% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Beijing Guoan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Beijing Guoan 3-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.53 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.48 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Beijing Guoan landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.65 / defence 1.11 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.18 / defence 1.13, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 60% | Draw 19% | Beijing Guoan 21%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 31%, Beijing Guoan 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.66 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.