Hebei Zhongji 3-4 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mission Hills Football Base Stadium plays host to Hebei Zhongji versus Tianjin Teda in Super League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Thursday 11 August 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hebei Zhongji's overall Super League record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hebei Zhongji's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 games at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Tianjin Teda have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Tianjin Teda are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Hebei Zhongji 2W, Tianjin Teda 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 2–1 with Hebei Zhongji winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hebei Zhongji — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 39% versus Tianjin Teda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 39% | Tianjin Teda 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 0.91 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.661 / defence 1.333 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.086 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.097. Hebei Zhongji's attack strength of 0.661 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Hebei Zhongji games / 25 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 21% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 53%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | Tianjin Teda 1.89. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hebei Zhongji 30% | Tianjin Teda 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 21% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Hebei Zhongji 0.91 / Tianjin Teda 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.661 / def 1.333 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.086 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Tianjin Teda xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 13:00 on Thursday 11 August 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda?
Hebei Zhongji 3 - 4 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 21% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda?
Record (2 meetings): Hebei Zhongji 2W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 0W.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hebei Zhongji's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Tianjin Teda's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (1.09x) against Hebei Zhongji's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
21%
4.69
26%
3.92
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
2.49
1.59
Tianjin Teda xG
4.69
21%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
4%
22.97
21%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 13.1 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 1.59 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hebei Zhongji's recent record stands at 7W 7D 19L from 33 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 16L across 33 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Hebei Zhongji against 1.06 for Tianjin Teda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hebei Zhongji have managed 5W 3D 8L from 16 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 4W 5D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.61 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 0.97 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 19L in their last 33 games (0.85 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 9W 8D 16L in their last 33 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Hebei Zhongji's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 1.12 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Tianjin Teda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 5-0 on 7 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hebei Zhongji have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Hebei Zhongji
0
Draws
2
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda?
From 4 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 2, Tianjin Teda have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2022, when Tianjin Teda 5-0 Hebei Zhongji.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hebei Zhongji 38%, Tianjin Teda 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Hebei Zhongji and 31% for Tianjin Teda.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 31%; Hebei Zhongji have failed to score in 50% of games; Tianjin Teda in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hebei Zhongji play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 44% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hebei Zhongji's recent games and 31% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Hebei Zhongji have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Hebei Zhongji 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Hebei Zhongji 3-4 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 0.91 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.59 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Hebei Zhongji beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tianjin Teda outscored their 1.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.66 / defence 1.33 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 21% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 53%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 39%, Tianjin Teda 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hebei Zhongji 0.85 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.