Hebei Zhongji 1-7 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Changchun Yatai at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Hebei Zhongji welcome Changchun Yatai to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Super League (matchday 14). Kick-off is Friday 19 August 2022 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Hebei Zhongji have gone 1W 0D 9L — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.

Hebei Zhongji's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 0D 9L (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Changchun Yatai — last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Changchun Yatai's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Form points away from home here. Changchun Yatai's 0.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Hebei Zhongji's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Hebei Zhongji have won 1, Changchun Yatai 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2021, ended Hebei Zhongji 0–3 Changchun Yatai — a Changchun Yatai win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Hebei Zhongji in-play and half-time data (last 34 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (last 34 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 38% versus Changchun Yatai 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 44% | Changchun Yatai 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 1.39 xG and Changchun Yatai 2.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.782 / defence 1.745 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.039 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.273. Hebei Zhongji's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.39. Changchun Yatai's defence rating of 1.324 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hebei Zhongji's projected output up. Hebei Zhongji's defence rating of 1.745 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Changchun Yatai's projected output up. Data: built from Hebei Zhongji's last 27 games and Changchun Yatai's last 26.

Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 22% | Draw 20% | Changchun Yatai 58%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 4.46 | Draw 5.10 | Changchun Yatai 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Changchun Yatai (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.39 / 2.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.70 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hebei Zhongji's last 10 home games and Changchun Yatai's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Hebei Zhongji 30% (last 10 home games) | Changchun Yatai 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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