Hangzhou Greentown 4-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Hangzhou Greentown welcome Wuhan Three Towns to Huanglong Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 September 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown at Huanglong Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Hangzhou Greentown are significantly better at Huanglong Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hangzhou Greentown 1.10 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hangzhou Greentown register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Hangzhou Greentown have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 9 past contests while Wuhan Three Towns have managed just 2 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hangzhou Greentown and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Wuhan Three Towns in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 66% and Wuhan Three Towns 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 69% | Wuhan Three Towns 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.38 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.299 / defence 1.116 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.240 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.362. Hangzhou Greentown carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 2.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Hangzhou Greentown games / 55 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 49% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 30%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.04 | Draw 4.76 | Wuhan Three Towns 3.33. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 78% | Total xG 4.27. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.27 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% reflects that both xG figures (2.38 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 78%. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 60% | Wuhan Three Towns 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Huanglong Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 49% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 78% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.38 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.299 / def 1.116 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.240 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Wuhan Three Towns xG
78%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Huanglong Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Hangzhou Greentown 4 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Huanglong Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 49% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 30% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (9 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 6W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 2W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.30x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.1%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
49%
2.04
21%
4.82
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
4.27
1.88
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.29
22%
BTTS No
4.47
Clean Sheet
15%
6.58
9%
10.85
Win to Nil
7%
13.45
3%
35.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.88 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 4.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 19W 18D 18L from 55 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 11W 18D 26L across 55 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hangzhou Greentown by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wuhan Three Towns heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 12W 11D 4L from 27 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 3W 8D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.31 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Wuhan Three Towns in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 19W 18D 18L in their last 55 games (1.36 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 11W 18D 26L in their last 55 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.74 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Mar 2025, when Hangzhou Greentown won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
2
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 10 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 7, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 4-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hangzhou Greentown at 70%, Wuhan Three Towns at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Hangzhou Greentown and 63% for Wuhan Three Towns. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 67% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 63% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hangzhou Greentown run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Wuhan Three Towns.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Wuhan Three Towns 4-1 at Huanglong Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.38 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.88 xG, a combined 4.27. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wuhan Three Towns landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.30 / defence 1.12 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.24 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 49% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 30%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 69%, Wuhan Three Towns 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.